The Eco AMR report projects 39 million deaths and $5 trillion in economic losses from drug-resistant bacteria by 2050. Cutting antimicrobial use 30% in livestock and investing in healthcare now could save 110 million lives with a 28-to-1 return.
Superbugs could kill 39 million people and bring animal production losses equivalent to 953 billion US dollars by 2050. Is it true? I wish it [music] wasn't, but that's not what our most recent studies tell us. Antimicrobial resistance keeps growing as a public health threat, and our research suggests that deaths due to drug-resistant bacteria will increase by 60% [music] in the next 25 years unless appropriate action is taken. During 2024, in collaboration with outstanding partners, we studied the health and economic impact of antimicrobial resistance in both humans and food-producing animals. This is the most extensive modeling study done to date, and it is called the Eco AMR report series. It evaluates consequences according to different scenarios, from those where we stick to current practices to those in [music] which antimicrobial use increases and the development of resistance among pathogens continues. Today, we know that every year drug-resistant bacteria already kill as many people as traffic road accidents worldwide. Then, the cumulative number can get as high as 39 million human lives by 2050. And the impact will be inequally felt with the highest burden among people over 70 years old and those in lower- and middle-income countries from sub-Saharan Africa and Asia. Healthcare costs will also rise to global figures between 159 and 325 billion US dollars per year. But, what is antimicrobial resistance? Antimicrobial resistance is probably the least understandable term scientists like us have found to describe what happens when antibiotics, antivirals, antifungals, or antiparasitic drugs stop working. And this is not because we or animals become resistant, it is because pathogens have found a way to survive the drugs we use to fight them, making infections difficult or even impossible to treat. The misuse and abuse of antimicrobials can make them become superbugs, resistant to every known drug. Already a reality, AMR is considered one of the top 10 global health threats by the World Health Organization. What about AMR in animals? Animals cannot be phenomenon, and even though it's not been studied as much, the presence of drug-resistant pathogens in animals seems to be increasing across the world. So, animal health is also [music] at stake here. As resistant infections spread in livestock, production can decline, food prices rise, and shortages become more common, hitting hard the most vulnerable. If there is no change in our current practices, food supply will be affected, [music] jeopardizing access to nutritious food for over 2 billion people by 2050. Based on available data, we have estimated that annually GDP losses would equal 40 billion US dollars by 2050. When we look at the scenarios where the incidence of animal disease is higher, we found that economic consequences would be dire, with cumulative global economic losses exceeding 5 trillion US dollars by 2050. Failing to face and contain AMR right now will endanger human life, [music] animal health, economies, and food production on a global scale, hindering the achievement of sustainable development goals. Well, that's a great question, because indeed we can prevent this from happening. Within the Eco AMR series, we analyzed which would be the most cost-effective actions to undertake now and by everyone. Of course, this will require behavioral changes as well as investments in drug innovation and healthcare improvements, but the returns are [music] clear, 28 to 1. And by combining this with universal safe water access, sanitation, [music] hygiene, and vaccination in low- and middle-income countries, we can save up to 110 million human lives. In animals, a global 30% reduction [music] in antimicrobial use within 5 years would lead between 2025 and 2050 to a 120 [music] billion US dollars cumulative increase in the global GDP. And this goal is within reach, >> [music] >> as our analysis shows 45% higher antimicrobial use in countries still allowing growth promotion in livestock. Believe me, there is hope. I'm not here to say that our world is beyond saving, but the time to act is now. And most importantly, we need to act together.